Uh, listening to the Doors' The End while reading about Hamas sweeping to victory in the Palestinian election. Seriously, can this be a good thing? I remember listening to a report on the News Hour with Jim Lehrer saying that Hamas was positioning itself to seem more moderate in the thoughts that they (Hamas) might become a larger part of the Palestinian parliament.
But that was before they rolled to victory. Now that they are the ruling majority, it is uncertain that they will "need" to moderate their tone. Even worse, President Abbas (the current leader working with Israel), said he would resign if not allowed to continue with the peace process. That means there is a high likelihood of a political party within and around Israel that would be very close to the current Iranian state.
McLaughlin style, I'm going to have to ask for "Predictions!"
I predict the imminent death of Sharon and the victory of Hamas will result in a rush of political conservativism in Israel. The region will slip into the periodic violence and uncertainty that it has chosen for decades, because, for some reason, everyone in this game thinks that's the rational best option available for them. Israel's walled withdrawal will continue, but as a strategic withdrawal to aid policing. Airstrikes will continue, Palestine will remain economically barren.
ReplyDeleteThe political cost of close involvement with this problem will cause governments around the world to continue to give it lip service, while avoiding close involvement or robust solutions.
My prediction: same as it ever was.
It sounded like people were predicting before this election an improved relationship between Israel and Palestine. Abbas seemed to be a real dove, which is probably the cause for the reaction against him. The people there may not want lots of violence, but they undoubtably do not want to appear conciliatory either.
ReplyDeleteI predict everything depends on if Palestine can gain some economic opportunity soon. If that happens, Hamas becomes moderate and seeks only the economic destruction of Israel. But Israel and America won't give Palestine, in particular Hamas, the economic opportunity to do so.
I agree with Thomas.
After reading some more, (wikipedia, some Hamas web pages), I'm no longer convinced that economic opportunity would mullify, even temporarily, this new government. Part of their position has been and continues to be economic improvement for Palestinians.
ReplyDeleteSince the recent assassinations of many of its leaders 2 years ago, I'm sure it has changed philosophy somewhat. Even particpating in the political process is a new strategy for Hamas (beginning last year). With the 'victory' in the West Bank emboldening them, the support of Palestinians, and the success of this new political strategy, I'd say there is a goal, a plan.
I'd predict a theocratic government formed with an emphasis on social justice. The PLO did a strange job of witholding from the Palestinians while giving gifts to individuals. But this is not the end of the plan. Within 2 years, we will know what it is.