Given that our election is just finished, it is natural that we begin debating the next one before our newly elected arrive in office. Of course the big question is: who's running? Who are we debating about, and how quickly can we discredit them?
I think pundits pre-emptively nominated Hillary so that they could open her up for attacks. Attacks that have convinced a lot of people she shouldn't run. I fear the same thing is happening to Mr. Obama. I've already seen Obama 2008 bumper stickers and with his trip to NH, it's on all the news stations. I should mention here that I've been a big Obama supporter since he ran in 2004.
So, when, politically speaking, should someone indicate their candidacy? I don't think Bush was ever really considered a forerunner until the end of the primaries. The early Democratic hopefulls ended up tarnished leaving Kerry, who I think announced well after Dean.
Have Mr. Obama's chances already been ruined? Are the extra months in the limelight worth announcing early for?
Bush was getting rallying cries from the religious right well before the primaries, with Limbaugh leading the way in his attacks discrediting John McCain.
ReplyDeleteMost of the time it will come down to organization and fund-raising.
My guess is that Obama will be fine. His record in the Senate is much too young to find massive voting irregularities, and he seems to have enough poise to answer the same inane questions over and over again for two years.
To answer the main question "When should someone indicate their candidacy?", one should announce their candidacy before the primaries and only after they are ready for the onslaught of public scrutiny.
Even nearly two years early, I still think Obama will be fine.
Nice pts PL, I really like the idea of Hillary as a bit of a lightning rod, just listed as an early contender to soak up criticism.
ReplyDeleteOn Obama
If elected, Obama would ascend at 47. He would be the fourth youngest president ever elected. It's rare to elect someone under 55, and extremely rare to elect someone under 50.
It's easy for us youngin's to forget the fact that voters generally don't trust anyone younger than them.
Obama's right, you don't run for Vice President. But you can run for President when you're a little bit young. Comparisons to Edwards, Gore and Bush Sr. as you will.
I'm excited for Obama to run, but do not think he'll survive the primaries. Hopefully though he will run in the primary to get experience. The difficulty is, if a Democrat (not him) does win in 2008, he's locked out until 2016.
ReplyDeleteSomewhat off topic, but interesting idea I heard from a friend at school.
If against all odds Hillary wins the primary, would Obama make a good choice for Vice-President?
There are two ways to go on this. If Hillary wins the presidency then Obama is locked into 8 years as VP or potentially 4, but then couldn't run for his own presidency until 2016 either way still.
Is he better off being VP or staying a senator?
Better as VP by far.
ReplyDeleteIf he runs for President and loses, then the stigma against black presidential candidates will be cemented for another 40 years.
If he runs as VP and loses, race won't be blamed. But if he wins, then the stigma against a black president melts away even as anyone who's even slightly worried about race is forced to grapple with the fact that at any moment, we could have a black president. They get a little time to adapt to the idea, a little time to get over it.
Plus, 8 more years and he will be the perfect age to run for President.
A couple of things:
ReplyDelete1. If a Republican wins in 2008, then Obama can run in 2012.
2. If Hillary does get the nod on either Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate, it would have been just a mere 28 years since a reputable female vice presidential candidate ran (Geraldine Ferraro, VP of Dems). Because of this, and the bias towards men (of any color or creed), I think black presidential candidates will be ok.
3. Point 2 is contingent on Reverends Sharpton and Jackson not gaining substantial votes.
4. NOT Vice President. Chris Rock had a joke about black people assassinating a white President if they got a black Vice President. Its just a joke, but THAT would set back black presidential candidates for at least 40 years.
Besides, the Vice Presidency does not guarantee you anything, especially if conservatives do everything in their power to wreck a Hillary presidency.